Predictions of Risk of Future Chronic Disease Involve Multiple Factors

While much focus has been placed on the role of overweight/obesity in chronic disease, high body mass index (BMI) may not be the main factor.  Sarah Appleton, from the University of Adelaide (Australia), and colleagues analyzed data collected on 3,743 adults enrolled in the North West Adelaide Health Study.  The researchers found that while only 4.1% of the study subjects were in the normal BMI range at the study’s start, they had at least two other metabolic risk factors, such as:
• Triglyceride levels of 1.7 mmol/L or greater
• HDL cholesterol under 1.0mmol/L for men or 1.3 mmol/L for women
• Blood pressure of 130/85 mm Hg or higher
• A fasting plasma glucose of at least 5.6mmol/L or self-reported diabetes
• Treatment for any of these disorders
Consequently, while absent of cardiovascular disease when they entered the study, after a mean of 3.5 years of follow-up, this group was 2.48 times at risk of incident cardiovascular disease or stroke events. Further, those study participants with metabolic risk factors tended to be 3.27 times as likely to develop diabetes (as compared to metabolically-healthy, normal weight individuals).   The researchers urge: “less emphasis on BMI and increased surveillance of central obesity in primary care.”