Span currently ranked 4th will have a projected life expectancy of 85.5 years dethroning Japan which currently sits in 1st with lifespans at 83.7 year will drop to 2nd place in 2040. USA drops from 43rd to 64th having projected lifespans of 79.8 years, while Chile jumps to 39th with projection of 81.9 years.
Other nations which may drop include Canada projected to fall from 17th to 27th, Norway from 12th to 20th, Australia from 5th to 10th, Mexico from 69th to 87th, Taiwan from 35th to 42nd, and North Korea from 125th in 2016 to 153rd in 2040.
Other nations that may move up the ranks include Indonesia which is projected to climb from 117th to 100th, Nigeria from 157th to123rd, Portugal from 23rd to 5th, Poland from 48th to 34th, Turkey from 40th to 26th, Saudi Arabia from 61st to 43rd, and assuming war comes to an end Syria from 137th in 2016 to 80th in 2040.
More optimistic and pessimistic scenarios are forecasted in which life expectancy increases to 81 years in the first case and essentially stagnates in the second. Although the world’s health is not preordained, nor are the projections guaranteed, only time will tell if there will be significant progress or stagnation depending on how health systems address key health drivers such as smoking, and poor diet.
Top 5 drivers of average lifespans two decades from now are all related to lifestyle disease which are: being overweight, high blood pressure, alcohol use, tobacco use, and high blood sugar. The world is projected to see an acceleration of a shift already underway from communicable to non-communicable disease along with injuries as the top cause of premature death. Air pollution ranks a very close 6th in drivers which is estimated to claim one million live per year in China alone.
The poorest countries in 2018 will continue to fairly poorly in regards to longevity, with the exception of Afghanistan, the bottom 30 countries will have projected lifespans between 57 to 69 years in 2040.
Inequalities will continue to be large, in a substantial number of countries too many people will continue earning low incomes, remain poorly educated, and die prematurely. Nations could make better progress by helping populations to tackle major risks such as smoking and poor diet. Tobacco use claims 7 million lives each year according to W.H.O. 4 out of 10 top causes of premature mortality in 2016 were non-communicable diseases or injury, that is expected to rise to 8 out of 10 in 2040.
